Unrest grips another former Soviet Republic while U.S.-Russia tensions continue to rise

 

A popular revolt exploded in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, with protesters storming and setting fire to the presidential residence in the often unnoticed but strategically vital Central Asian nation that shares lengthy borders with Russia and China and operates as a key hub for U.S. oil companies in the region. 

While the demonstrations were sparked just days into the new year by soaring fuel prices brought on by the Kazakh government, allegations of foreign meddling quickly swirled around the unrest, which coincides with heightened U.S.-Russia tension over other former Soviet republics, including Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine. Kazakhstan also saw itself as an oasis of relative stability and political moderation in Central Europe. 

The unrest could prove a diplomatic and security windfall for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Moscow-dominated regional security alliance, announced it was sending peacekeeping forces to the troubled Central Asian country at the request of embattled Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart-Tokayev,  the Associated Press reported.

“We are closely following the events in the fraternal neighboring state,” Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement before the deployment was announced. “We are calling for a peaceful solution to all problems in the framework of the Constitution and the law, and dialogue, and not through street riots and the violation of laws.” 

Geopolitical friction across Central Asia has become more prominent since the messy U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, as Mr. Putin has used his influence in the region to dissuade such countries as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from hosting any new American bases.

The Biden administration called for calm Wednesday before swiftly accusing Moscow of promoting a false narrative that American officials are to blame for the unrest that has been building for days in Kazakhstan. “There are some crazy Russian claims about the U.S. being behind this,” said White House spokesperson Jen Psaki.

“That is absolutely false and clearly a part of the standard Russian disinformation playbook,” she said, telling reporters the administration “support[s] calls for calm, for protesters to express themselves peacefully and for authorities to exercise restraint.”

Ms. Psaki’s comments followed reports of Kazakh protesters chanting slogans against Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s 81-year-old former ruler, who stepped down in 2019 but has since retained behind-the-scenes authority over the government. Some analysts said the slogans set nerves on edge in Moscow, where Mr. Putin is seen to fear the prospect of such an uprising against his own government.

In an apparent attempt to address the worst public uprising in Kazakhstan in more than a decade, Mr. Tokayev, Mr. Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor, announced he was taking over as head of the country’s powerful Security Council — a post that had been retained by Mr. Nazarbayev.

Kazakh police reportedly fired on some protesters at the presidential residence in Almaty in a chaotic clash that came to a head after days of mounting provincial demonstrations, during which police had deployed water cannons in the freezing weather and fired tear gas and concussion grenades.

Kazakh news sites became inaccessible late in the day Wednesday, and the global watchdog organization Netblocks said the country was experiencing a pervasive internet blackout, although the Russian news agency Tass reported that internet access was restored in Almaty by early Thursday.

Mr. Tokayev said on state television shortly before midnight Wednesday that the unrest was being led by “terrorist bands” that had received help from unspecified other countries. Kazakhstan, the ninth-largest country in the world, borders Russia to the north and China to the east and has extensive oil reserves that make it strategically important to the global economy.

Retired American diplomat Richard E. Hoagland, who served as U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan from 2008 to 2011, said in an interview Wednesday that the country represents a “strategic crossroads between Asia and Europe.”

“It has been for several decades now the place where Russia, China, the EU and the United States go head-to-head, although not necessarily in the most obvious ways,” said Mr. Hoagland, currently a member of the board of the Caspian Policy Center in Washington.

As a result, he said, the Kazakh government has engaged in a “multivector foreign policy” aimed at keeping “even relations with those four outside powers, rather than allowing one to gain more influence than any of the others.”

Former U.S. Ambassador George Krol, who served as the top American diplomat in Kazakhstan from 2015 to 2018, told The Washington Times that none of the relevant outside powers has an interest in destabilizing the Central Asian country.

While the U.S. government has long encouraged Kazakhstan to embrace a “more democratic and pluralistic system,” he suggested Washington’s overarching goal is to promote stability in the country.

Oil producer

Mr. Krol, now an adjunct professor at the U.S. Naval War College and an associate of Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, emphasized the presence of major U.S. oil companies in the country.

Houston-based Chevron boasts on its website that it is “Kazakhstan‘s largest private oil producer.” ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are also reported to be heavily invested there.

“The huge North Caspian field of oil is one of the largest deposits remaining in the world,” said Mr. Krol, who maintained that a 1994 deal between the Kazakh government and a consortium led by Chevron “has been a big money maker, not only for Chevron, but also for Kazakhstan.”

At the same time, he said, it’s important to note all of that oil gets to market through one major pipeline that runs through Russia, and Russia earns income from that pipeline.

Despite the oil wealth, discontent over poor living conditions is strong in some parts of Kazakhstan. Many Kazakhs also chafe at the dominance of Mr. Nazarbayev’s longtime ruling party, which holds more than 80% of the seats in parliament.

Frustration among the country’s roughly 20 million people over alleged corruption at the top — and the government’s failure to spread oil wealth more broadly — is seen to be a driving force behind the current unrest.

Public anger spiked at the start of the year, when prices for liquefied petroleum gas widely used as vehicle fuel in Kazakhstan roughly doubled overnight as the government moved away from price controls — part of what officials said was an effort to move to a more market-oriented economy.

The frustration is deepest in Kazakhstan‘s west, the epicenter of oil operations. The Associated Press reported the demonstrations began Sunday in Zhanaozen, a western city where a 2011 strike by oil workers led to violence in which police shot at least 15 protesters.

There were reports Wednesday that the entire government may be resigning, although Mr. Tokayev sought to project an image of control from the capital of Nur-Sultan. The Kazakh president vowed to take harsh measures to quell the current unrest and declared a two-week state of emergency for the whole country.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement Wednesday evening that “the United States is closely following the situation in Kazakhstan, a valued partner.”

“We condemn the acts of violence and destruction of property and call for restraint by both the authorities and protestors,” said Mr. Price. “We ask for all Kazakhstanis to respect and defend constitutional institutions, human rights and media freedom, including through the restoration of internet service. We urge all parties to find a peaceful resolution of the state of emergency.”