What does Russia’s military operation in Ukraine mean for Africa?

 

Russia launched a large-scale military operation in neighboring Ukraine, an action that has sent ripple effects throughout the global economy, with oil and gold prices rising and the ruble plunging into a dramatic spiral. But what will this historic event mean for Africa? Read on to find out. 

Military Engagements

In recent years Russia has ramped up its military engagement with African countries, with private security contractors, combat training and weapon scales all playing a role in various conflict zones across the continent. Mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group have been instrumental in the Central African Republic’s ongoing fight against various rebel factions. Private military contractors from the same Russian firm were present in Libya, and in the fight against Islamist separatist insurgents in northern Mozambique. In Mali, where long-present French soldiers are in the midst of a withdrawal, the government has asked Russian fighters to replace them.

Now, with tens of thousands of Russian soldiers engaged in fierce fighting in Ukraine, Moscow’s military attention is naturally turning towards matters closer to home. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Africa accounted for nearly a fifth of Russian weapons exports between 2014-2020. With countless munitions being expended in Russia’s Ukraine offensive, it’s possible this stream of Africa-bound armaments could dry up, while rapidly expanding Western sanctions against Russia will make other kinds of military partnerships more complicated too. 

Economic Impacts

The intensification of fighting in Ukraine has driven the price of oil up dramatically. In response to the escalation, Germany said it would halt plans for the long-controversial Nordstream 2 gas pipeline, which together with wide-ranging sanctions, will take Russian fossil fuels off the market for much of Europe. This could be an opportunity for oil-producing states in Africa to take advantage of the increased prices while offering an alternative source of energy. 

On the other hand, the weakened rouble could strike a blow to the small but rapidly growing trade interests that Moscow shares with African countries, a category which . State-owned firms and private enterprises from Russia are involved in mining operations throughout the continent, from bauxite in Guinea to uranium in Namibia, platinum in Zimbabwe and diamonds in Angola. Agricultural exports like coffee, fruits, and cacao are also important elements of Russia-Africa trade. But with many in the West intent to isolate Russia internationally, it’s likely that these budding trade relationships, which are still dwarfed by Africa’s trade with China and Europe, will likely stall for some time. 

Diplomatic Implications

The deepening crisis between Ukraine and Russia has also prompted some African governments to emerge from the sidelines and come out to voice their positions. Kenya’s ambassador to the UN, Martin Kimani, garnered global attention Monday for a pointed speech at the United Nations Security Council denouncing Russia’s recognition of the self-declared People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. 

“Today, across the border of every single African country, live our country men with whom we share deep historical, cultural and linguistic bonds,” he said. 

At independence, had we chosen to pursue states on the basis of ethnic, racial or religious homogeneity, we would still be waging bloody wars these many decades later.”

Last week, Namibia’s minister for international relations and cooperations also echoed the call for peace. On Wednesday, South Africa’s equivalent ministry did likewise, pointing out that both countries had “much to gain from a negotiated outcome and much to lose from unnecessary conflict.

There also remains the question of what to do with the thousands of African students living in Ukraine, mainly from Nigeria, Morocco and Egypt, who together make up roughly a fifth of the foreign learners in the country. 

In any case, the Ukraine crisis has demonstrated that today’s increasingly integrated global systems mean that, even in faraway regional confrontations, African countries have a stake, a voice and a role to play.